The Numbers

Arizona's Recidivism Rate, and the Programs Proving It Can Drop

· Sanctuary Community Initiative · 2 min read

A man with a backpack looking toward the Phoenix skyline at sunset beside a New Paths Stronger Futures sign, with the post title Arizona's Recidivism Rate overlaid

Numbers only mean something in context, so here's the Arizona-specific context that matters for anyone working in (or funding) reentry in this state.

The baseline

Arizona's statewide recidivism rate, measured as reincarceration, sits around 36% in the data most commonly cited by researchers analyzing state outcomes. That's roughly in line with national reincarceration figures, which the Council of State Governments Justice Center puts near 28% nationally and falling. Either way, it means a large share of people released in Arizona return, the predictable result of releasing people into instability.

But the more important Arizona number is what happens when the state does reentry well.

The proof: RSAT

Arizona's Residential Substance Abuse Treatment (RSAT) program has become a national model. Published analysis found its participants reoffended at just 13%, statistically, dramatically lower than the roughly 36% statewide rate, a reduction of around 64%.

What made the difference isn't mysterious, and it isn't a secret treatment breakthrough. RSAT's release planning does the unglamorous work: helping people obtain government ID and a Social Security number, enrolling them in AHCCCS before release, connecting them to clinical care and medication, and alerting community partners so care continues on the outside. In other words, continuity and practical support. The exact things that fall into the gap when they're missing.

What Arizona is building on it

The state is scaling this logic. Governor Hobbs's Reentry 2030 executive order commits Arizona to concrete targets: more people leaving prison with credentials, a 20% increase in employment one year post-release, Medicaid behavioral health services for eligible incarcerated people before release, and expanded peer support specialists. Arizona is even serving as a mentor state to others through a federally funded Medicaid and corrections policy academy.

What the Arizona data means for SCI

The RSAT result is the whole case for Sanctuary Community Initiative in one program. When people leave with ID, health coverage, and a support plan, reoffending collapses. Our work funds the community-side pieces of that same equation (housing bridges, transportation, food, employment support, family connection) for people rebuilding in the Phoenix area.

Arizona has already proven the mechanism works. Every person we help is one more data point on the 13% side of the ledger.

See how our participants' outcomes compare to these Arizona baselines on The Numbers.

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